Skybet have tried patiently for the last hour to help me withdraw some money to my Monzo card. They were convinced I have the gambling block on for the following reason.
Instead of “failed” it says “declined” on their back end every time I try to withdraw to the card.
I have doubled checked and “block gambling” is still set to “off” and I have never ever turned this on.
Sorry mate but please provide any method. I’m 100% positive I can mathematically disprove any of them if you for some reason are still under the impression that “arbing it out” is a viable option, lol.
It’s pretty basic elementary logic to show (n multiple ways) that neither arbing nor high odds will ever be a viable strategy for getting money out of a bookmaker account.
Also, btw, that same logic applies whether you have 1p or £100k
You back something on skybet at 4.0 odds, hoping it’ll lose.
You lay at an exchange, hoping it’ll win (with a slight difference in odds).
It goes your way, you have nothing at the bookie and a win at the exchange. You’ll take a loss on the difference in odds and in the exchange commission, but otherwise, you’ve shifted the money.
It’s just an arbitrary bet that shifts your money.
If you win at the bookie, it’s trickier and trickier, but just repeat if you can…
No matter what odds you choose when you win at the bookie you dig yourself into a deeper and deeper hole. If you’re laying on an exchange or dutching, you end up with greater and greater losses on the other side.
I mean this is a common fallacy so I don’t blame you for falling for it. But I’m pretty sure all those who’ve been throwing supercomputers at the sports markets for the last ten years saw the hole in your argument a while ago.
Ask yourself this for an alternative proof: if you “knew” you would eventually lose your entire balance at the bookie, why are you bothering to lay?!
Also, even if you have a VIP account with 1.7% commission or you use inferior sm odds, you’re losing quite a chunk before you even come to the vig on every bet.
What you’re suggesting is logically equivalent to martingale (or any other variant like fibonacci staking that has been trivially disproved for centuries).
It simply does not work for what turn out to be fairly obvious reasons.
If you still don’t believe me, ask yourself what’s the skybet max liability on a VIP account for horse racing or tier 1 football. Then ask yourself the probability of reaching that liability prior to busting out at odds of evens, 4/1, 10/1 and 100/1. This idea has been done to death over and over and over. It still doesn’t work!
This is why I asked how much you have with the bookie. It’s only worth a punt for small amounts and, yes, you will make a loss. It depends how much hassle you want to go through. It could fail altogether, of course.
You don’t know a back will lose, but you know the likelihood. Obviously, you’d never intentionally take this route, but if you really can’t withdraw, it would recoup some of the cash
No, as I explained it’s not worth it for any amount as the EV calculation still means you’re screwed whether it’s 1p or several grand.
Again, you didn’t answer why you’d bother to lay if you’re “expecting” it to lose. The answer is because if you thought this was more likely to happen you wouldn’t bother laying in the first place and you’ll have discovered a perpetual motion machine.
Or, mathematically, leave you in a much deeper hole than you began in. It’s EV- compared to just writing off the cash and therefore not to be recommended in any circumstance whatsoever. Seriously.
Come on, basic probabilistic recursion isn’t that tough to wrap your head around…