Brexit Chat


(Jonathon) #396

Well what I’m going by are the various polls and surveys done that suggest the tide has changed somewhat. Not that these are foolproof but it’s not anecdotal. There is more evidence that the public mood has switched slightly than has remained or got stronger towards a leave vote.

If people who want to leave are so convinced the vote would remain the same then there is no fear in holding another vote now there are more facts and less bravado and egos, since we would vote to leave again, right?


(If there's the wrong end of a stick, you'll find me holding it.) #398

That’s true. But. She’s someone who voted against same sex adoption, against the repeal of Section 28, spent years whipping up hatred towards migrants, deported gay people to violently homophobic countries, and driven disabled and poor people into misery.

So if she has the occasional bad day, I’m fine with that. :man_shrugging:


(Marc Dando) #399

That’s more than fair enough, dude. I will admit that I couldn’t help but feel a bit sceptical of Channel 4’s recent polling on the ol’ Brexit issue, but that’s not to say that there isn’t really valid stuff out there.

I’m not actually convinced the vote would remain the same (although I’m not claiming that you stated this). My intention more than anything was to promote a bit of caution regarding the will of the people, because the people can be a surprising bunch at the best of times :sweat_smile:

And honestly I’m not a staunch Brexiteer (my internal polling on most of these things is always 51-49) to the point where another referendum doesn’t sit well with me. If it’s decided that another referendum is the way to go, then I honestly won’t mind that and what will be will be. That being said, no disrespect intended but the way you’ve put it there at the end (“no fear in holding another vote”) is a bit of a playground way of approaching democracy really.


#400

If C4 is not your cup of tea you can look at Sky News :slight_smile:


(Marc Dando) #401

Thanks for bringing it to my attention… and I mean that. Like I previously said, I’m sure there’s a lot of solid polling on this issue.


(Andy) #402

The end is nigh for mrs May!


(Marc Dando) #403

Maybe not. It’s quite possible that she’ll win a confidence vote.


(Christopher) #404

giphy

Bravo ERG!

The desire and capacity for self destruction is frankly staggering.


(Is Santa here yet?) #405

How? She’s lost the support of the DUP and a fair percentage of her own party


#406

She’d need to lose the support of 50% of her own party. Not clear that she has, given the time that it has taken to get 15% of them to call for a vote of no confidence.


(Marc Dando) #407

I believe 48 no confidence letters would only be 15% of the party - so she’s not dead and buried yet basically.


(Is Santa here yet?) #408

The momentum is there. There are always less who will publicly come forward at this stage but will for the vote.


#409

True. Much more likely if there’s a clear alternative candidate, which I thought would have been Gove (but he’s not going anywhere – yet).


(Marc Dando) #410

Very true, but I didn’t discount the possibility of that that. I just said that it’s quite possible that she’ll get through it.


(Is Santa here yet?) #411

That’s the interesting bit. It’s political suicide to stand. No way anyone can balance all the various groups with the reality of what Europe will offer

Gove :cold_sweat:


(If there's the wrong end of a stick, you'll find me holding it.) #412

Fairly likely, is my guess. Even if she did, it doesn’t alter the fact that, barring something exceptional happening in the next month, there are two options available. The draft withdrawal agreement, or hard Brexit. Changing the leader doesn’t alter this.


(Christopher) #413

A vote of no confidence is an internal Conservative party matter, the DUP have no say.

The no confidence vote triggers a leadership contest which seeks to appoint a new leader of the party. This purely an opportunistic move by ERG agitators.


#414

Absolutely. I suspect we’ll ultimately end up with a second referendum or a general election.

(Gove :face_vomiting:)


(Jonathon) #415

How so? I have yet to really hear a solid reason why a second vote shouldn’t happen. Those who say “We have had a vote” are also usually convinced it’s the will of the people so it shouldn’t have changed and a second vote should have the same outcome and solidify the vote to leave.

If anything, if you’re convicted that the UK public want to leave still then a second vote is positive and will completely get rid of any remainer issues.

I suspect strongly that they know they don’t have a majority and don’t want to risk a second vote.


(Is Santa here yet?) #416

No but surely the ability to get things through Parliament in future is a consideration? May won’t but could an alternative leader since the DUP have thanked Mogg as a defender of the Union?