[Brexit Chat] Stockpiling For Brexit


(Matt) #42

This is true on an individual level. But I think panic buying is not a responsible thing to do, especially when the Government and the Food Industy have told people not to, and certainly not in excess. If everyone tries to hedge their bets and buy up double, triple, or even more food than they actually need, that it how you manufacture a food shortage. Someone mentioned the Fuel Strikes of 2000, and the small potential of minor fuel shortage leading to a huge fuel shortage because of people responding disproportionately to the risk and consuming more of the endagered commodity than necessary.

If you manfacture a food shortage, then you increase the amount of people panic buying and demand further outstrips supply, in a vicious circle.

This is not effective or fair resource allocation.


(Nick) #43

I absolutely agree with this, especially having been on the wrong end of the stick (saw no need to panic buy, turned up at supermarket to see shelves stripped bare anyway) before. Luckily, with Brexit still a few months off, there’s no need to panic buy! Adding an extra can or two to your usual supermarket shop will suffice to generate a stockpile without unnecessarily stripping supermarket shelves.

I’ve seen the reports about supermarkets hoovering up warehouse space, so am absolutely awaer that they are prepared for short-term distruption. And I very much hope it is short term. But, while I may may be going to Jack’s extent, I am preparing myself (at this point, though I have a few tins, I mostly appear to have stockpiled Saturo ready-to-drink meals).


(Michael) #44

Not to want to jump into a brexit debate 'cause too many times this just goes round in circles.

I just wanted to pick up on one point - the point of the thread.

This is about stockpiling, not panic buying.

As Jack (in the original article) mentioned if you are clever about your purchases and buy now in quantities to cover potentially a month from end of March (tins/non-perishables). Then the supermarkets will have chance to replenish these stocks ahead of time.

Will I be stockpiling? No as I don’t normally bother to buy food ahead of time for a week let alone a month. However, I know some people who may well benefit from buying some extra food simply due to being able to secure the current price and hedging their bets - while still having the food in the future to eat (so win-win).

Panic buying helps no one.


( related to Monzo CEO, Investor in Monzo ) #45

I shall be ordering at least a pallet of these to tied me over the ensuing chaos of leaving a club

  • then I shall be in the utopian sunny uplands and shall have my cake to eat - I will have to of course get a potable water tank to stockpile my own supply of water to add to the mix , or get my own cow so I can have a sunday best version with milk , because apparently water isn’t going to flow because the purification treatment chemicals aren’t available anywhere else in the world except from the EU, and they are going to be nasty and not supply them to an ex member of their club :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

…panic !!! note to self . …get a cow

in all honesty there does seem to be an abundant choice of flavours …mmmmmmmmm

  • The sensible stockpiling option - win win - lots of flavours - dry mix, lasts for ages so should (hopefully , fingers crossed ) last the decades of purgatory , plus , its manufactured in the EU wooo hooo ( Uxbridge )

( related to Monzo CEO, Investor in Monzo ) #46

note 2 - … get propane tank in back garden, probably site above mexi shelter , if cow doesn’t object, to cook cakes


(Matt) #47

Interesting reading about the bullwhip effect stockpiling is having on industry printed in today’s Guardian as a letter from two Professors at the Kühne Logistics University:

"The latest IHS Markit/CIPS survey shows that stockpiling for a no-deal Brexit is now well under way and giving UK manufacturing a “temporary boost” (Report, 3 January). It is also likely to be unleashing what in business circles is known as the “bullwhip effect”. This amplifies fluctuations in demand as they ripple back along a supply chain, destabilising production and distribution operations. It is an effect that has been observed and researched for over 60 years, though to our knowledge has not been discussed in the numerous studies of Brexit’s economic impact. Past experience and analytical modelling suggest that the current upswing in demand for stockpiled products will not simply be counterbalanced by an equivalent downswing once any Brexit disruption is over. The negative supply-chain impacts will be much more pronounced and longer-lasting both in the UK and across the EU. They will also be greatly intensified if, as seems likely, consumers start to panic-buy in anticipation of a no-deal Brexit. Even if the no-deal scenario is finally averted, the bullwhip effect has already been triggered, probably to the longer-term detriment of businesses on both sides of the Channel.

Professor Alan McKinnon and Professor Jan Fransoo
Kühne Logistics University, Hamburg, Germany"


( related to Monzo CEO, Investor in Monzo ) #48

crikey I better order two pallets …panic…phew, just been in Sainsburys and all seems OK, at least here in the North :slight_smile:


#49

Can anyone imagine what would happen if Brexit never happens?

A vote which was voted for no matter what the percentages that doesn’t happen?

It would set a precedent for people to not bother voting in the future which should worry people more than Brexit itself.


(Simon B) #50

It was an advisory vote and not legally binding, and the side that had slightly more votes violated electoral law, which everyone now knows. The only responsible thing to do now is to cancel the whole thing, or hold a more stringent vote on what should happen.


(Ben) #51

So I work in the food manufacturing industry - so have a bit of insight here…

My company, like many others of our size and scale, I imagine, are working right now on the best plans we can feasibly forsee for long term supply through Brexit.

For a business like ours, who sell relatively short shelf life / chilled products - we are doing things like:

  • Moving manufacturing to different locations to ensure supply of incoming goods isn’t disrupted
  • Increasing production and stockholding in UK and EU warehouses in the event of a disruption upstream.
  • Working closely with our retailers to manage forecasts and demands.

(And loads of other background things that make all that work too).

The long and short of it - every reputable food company will be trying to minimise any impact - and hopefully the end consumer sees none.

However, things that have a very short shelf life and are imported - seasonal fresh fruit and fresh veg - could be impacted significantly by delays at borders, if no agreement is made for how imports / borders are dealt with.

It may be similar to the Iceberg Lettuce shortage of the summer.


(Splodf) #52

I find this funny that should their be no shortages, it will be blamed on project fear and not credit the nous and forward planning of our food manufacturing facilities.


(MikeF) #53

That’s an easy get-out fair those that care to take it, unfortunately. It’s the Millennium Bug all over again in that respect.


(Tony) #54

Those of us who worked on Y2K issues know the sheer amount of work that went into fixing legacy systems. I mean, have you tried to work with COBOL 68? It’s not fun!


(Ben) #55

Absolutely - same as every other averted crisis right.

What astounds me the most is the amount of wasted energy + resource that my business alone is spending on “dealing with Brexit”.

Multply that by all food business in the UK… Scary (and that’s just one industry…)


(Matt) #56

You’re spot on. I blame an incompetent Government for dragging its heels and not keeping business better informed from an early stage. At this stage if I were a betting man I’d lay you 2-1 we won’t be leaving in March anyway.


(Nick) #57

What I remember about the Millennium Bug:

newpaper articles before Dec 31, 1999 = businesses are spending millions on working to fix their software to prevent this bug messing everything up!

newspaper articles after Jan 1, 2000 = nothing happened! that was a waste of money, wasn’t it?

Zero recognition that ‘nothing happened’ because of the efforts in the years and months leading up to Y2K. Even then it bothered me that papers were (perhaps deliberately, because hey, whatever sells papers) failing to connect the dots.

So I’ll say now, to you and to anyone else here who may have worked on Y2K issues - I recognise and appreciate all the work and effort you put in to update systems.


#58

Just to update the thread what the deputy mayor of Calais, also the chief executive of the port of Calais, said Wednesday about traffic delays due to no-deal Brexit.

Lorries will run smoothly across the Channel even in the event of a no deal Brexit, the deputy mayor of Calais has insisted.

Jean-Marc Puissesseau, who is also the chief executive of Calais port, said the UK Government’s warnings over a crisis at the border are “shocking” and “disrespectful”.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he repeatedly said Calais “will be ready for no deal” after preparing and updating its systems for a year and developing the necessary infrastructure.

Warnings of traffic jams and delays are “wrong” and “not true”, Mr Puissesseau said, adding France will not carry out extra checks on goods crossing the Channel.

“We will not check the trucks more than we are doing today, with the migrants,” he said. “We will only be asking of the drivers that they have their customs declarations, but we will not stop or ask more than we are doing today.”

[…]


#59

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#60

As investments go you are onto a winner!


#61

Its alot of nonsense over nothing…though I’ll not be doing a tesco delivery for the day after we leave :smiley: