Revolut raise suggests private markets are indeed frothy again (as my company is experiencing too).
Revolut has raised $800m at $33bn valuation, (admittedly from Softbank, investors behind the WeWork fiasco), but N26 are also said to be looking at a $10bn valuation.
Revolut’s revenue isn’t much larger than Monzo’s, but user base is much larger at 12m (albeit with many inactive I expect) to Monzo’s 5.3m, and N26’s 7m.
Nonetheless, I think Monzo must be looking at a greater valuation if it were to access capital, which it may not do (it’s always been more frugal than the likes of revolut).
I honestly think if they ‘direct listed’ today they’d be valued at least £5bn based on the rising tide principle, then they’d move above £10bn if they announce a US license and rollout plans.
Could just be me talking my book but I don’t think Transferwise and Revolut should be worth 10 and 24 times more than Monzo
I do think these valuations are obscene and having witnessed the 2000 crash I’d say this is resembling the vertical incline that led to the crash. It’s monetary inflation… Loads of cash desperate to find hard assets at any price. Houses, land, commodities, and apparently fintechs.
I agree completely. Especially as they were lining up a £100m raise pre covid (3 days before the first lockdown Tom said in the podcast he did recently).
Ironically it was Softbank pulling out of their Monzo investment due to the covid panic which caused Monzo to scramble for cash at this low valuation right at the bottom of the V.
(my assumption based on news at the time, not confirmed)
In light of all this, it seems very surprising if Monzo’s real valuation isn’t a few multiples higher than it’s down round, and probably it’s previous highest round.
1 bn is already quite generous on the rising tide principle. I can’t see Monzo being 5bn based on the last annual report.
Revolute and Wise have more unique business models and opportunities, Monzo is a small bank of which we have seen plenty come and go in the last 20 years.
I know we all like it more, I like it more too but that’s not what valuations work on.
Not arguing, your opinion is all very valid, but curious to know how many new retail banks can you list other than Metro Bank as I can’t think of plenty?
Obviously: based on historic financials Monzo wouldn’t be worth anything at all, let alone £1bn
I feel you are missing from your list the key factor to balance those things which is risk. The last annual report shows a whole lot of risk, hence the down valuation.
Ultimately, at some point the shares need to return a dividend at a good percentage, however far off that is - that’s the end basis of what gives them value. There’s still substantial risk that won’t happen with Monzo shares at 1bn, let alone 5bn.
Feels like now that Monzo is entering the BNPL space, and has an ARR of £100m as of December 2020, they should definitely be raising at a higher valuation soon.
Revolut’s raise ($33bn) came off the back of $364m in annual revenue
Klarna had revenues of $1bn in 2020 (valued at $49bn)
Afterpay had revenues of $400m in 2020 (valued at $30bn)
Wise had revenues of $420m in 2020 (valued at $14bn)
Monzo run rate was (according to its financials) around $140m in december 2020 (valued at $1.7bn and overdue a raise)…
the valuations aren’t directly affected by the revenues. they are primarily about what the growth potential looks like vs the risk. Whatever the current revenues of these companies, the valuations are still based on huge growth expectations.
The reason continued large losses have affected Monzos valuation is more that it increases the risks associated with backing the company. Declaring profitability would at least mitigate some of the risks, but just increasing revenues (while still making a loss) probably won’t help that much.
I think they are due a valuation bump though, because at last valuation the pandemic meant a huge amount of additional risk which doesn’t really exist now.
Good to see Monzo raising again, albeit a relatively modest valuation I guess. Will be nice to see if Monzo can 3/4x + by IPO from the speculative $4bn they are expected to get soon.
Revolut’s no benchmark, as Softbank are idiots and that valuation is very frothy IMO.
Holding on to 3150 shares myself, and have waited a fair time to get a return!
It’s high, sure. Although revolut have also positioned themselves for growth in several markets, so I guess the opportunity is seen as much bigger.
Monzo still bares the significant risk (valuation wise) of becoming a reasonably sized U.K. only bank instead of a global banking revolution. I think if they start to hit the US market hard and gain traction there that will completely flip the valuation though.
My (admittedly amateur) assessment is that Monzo is probably valued almost exclusively on its UK operations and potential profitability there. I suspect Revolut is valued globally, so has more of the upside baked in already.
Revolut seems to be doing an excellent job, with upside if they bag a UK banking licence. I suspect, though, that there’s more potential growth for Monzo if it were to expand internationally. I’ve said this many times before, but I think they’re really missing a trick in not copy/pasting the bank for Ireland. The longer they leave expansion, the more unlikely it’ll be.
We need some form of table showing valuation/customer, revenue etc. I wonder if there’s anything out there to compare, say, Monzo, Starling, N26, Bunq, Chime, Nubank…?
From my point of view, I’m less trusting of any Softbank-related valuation given the whole WeWork debacle where they massively overvalued the business and were left with much egg on their faces.
In the case of Monzo, I tend to agree with those who think the valuation is being held back because it’s being looked at as a UK-only proposition. I think once they’ve reset their US arm and have a clear plan for what they’re doing there again, then they will start getting better valuations again.
Yes I sort of agree. Although, I think there must be at least some hope of international expansion factored in, otherwise for the current valuation they must be hoping for a very considerable increase in the size of the U.K. business.
But, I definitely agree that the current valuation strongly reflects the possibility of it growing as U.K. only.
