I love the conspiracy that someone in a lab somewhere thought a man made virus with a 2% mortality was a success. 
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Im not convinced people will change to be honest.
This whole situation has only reinforced my view that there are a lot of people in the UK that are complete and total morons with not an ounce of common sense between them, and add in the fact that they extremely selfish creates a very dangerous mix which I think is virtually impossible to reverse.
People die of cancer all the time, but it doesnât stop people smoking,etcâŚ
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Iâve struggled. Iâm waiting on a TRX to turn up. But I can feel my muscle mass going as I stopped going due to injury about 2 weeks prior to this starting and was only ready to go back just as they started the lockdown. I am itching to do something more than press-ups!!
As if this werenât confirmed ages ago.
I hope Iâm not right either, but in the past 10 mins Iâve witnessed 3 different sets of neighbours coming home with their âshoppingâ none of which would probably be deemed as essential. All travelling in pairs.
Weâre fighting a battle on two fronts when it should only be the virus that we need to fight.
While the rest of your post is great, this is not accurate. Itâs going to continue at exactly the same exponential rate until we see lockdown and school closure effects start to kick in. This is exactly as predicted by all the latest simulations.
This exponential rate will not be increasing even if the daily number of dead will for some time still be increasing each day.
At present if we donât see a change in the rate we will hit 10k deaths on 7 April.
Actually the data say closer to 11-22 days so thereâs even more of a lag.
Whilst I donât believe it, you are working on the assumption that its aim was to kill people. Another perspective is that if it was designed to disrupt economies, it was a huge success.
Brilliant we have someone then who can explain to us that it was made in a lab.
Canât wait to hear your expertise on the subject.
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Iâll get in early with the debunking:
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Except we know it wasnât, itâs already a proven fact. And the problem with that conspiracy is it would be fairly easy to work out which country it came from 
Iâm a little out of my depth here, but Iâm fairly certain new infections havenât been increasing exponentially so itâs reasonable to assume that deaths wonât increase exponentially either. Feel free to correct me if Iâm wrong here.
Graph below - source: Peng Wu / DHSC
So assuming the full 14 days to show symptoms plus the full 22 days until death thatâs 36 days.
If we then put that alongside the two instructions from the PM:
Social distancing - 16th March
Reflected in infection numbers from: 31st March
Reflected in death numbers from: 23rd April
You must stay at home - 23rd March
Reflected in infection numbers from: 7th April
Reflected in death numbers from: 30th April
Thatâs obviously all on the extreme side of things when in reality most infections and deaths will happen earlier, but it gives you an idea of just how long this will all be going on for and why itâs wrong to say that our current âlockdownâ isnât working - itâs way too early to make that judgement.
One final thing is that none of this takes into account infections taking place within households. Just because people are locked down doesnât mean they wonât spread it to the people they live with - thatâs part of the reason why Italyâs infection numbers are still so high despite being in lockdown for so long.
I should point out that Iâm not even close to being an expert in this field, everything above is based on the data and facts we have available. I could be wildly wrong, and in some ways I hope I am.
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If anything Iâm exercising even more now, mostly at home and with the occasional bike ride . Hope you guys are all well and OK
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Not sure if you are right or wrong @RichardL but I like the logic. The thing is - will the virus behave accordingly. R-
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Boris Johnson warns stricter restrictions may be applied to halt covid 19.
According to BBC news
Wonder whatâs next then
Everyone is Playing by the rules in my town
No more than 2 people in an online forum at a time or theyâll cancel the internet
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I would image any (or all) of:
- People from the same household can not go out together
- All non-essential business forced to close
- Roadblocks on inter-regional roads - for Police to stop and question about journey
- Long distance trains cut back significantly further than they already are
- Enforced restrictions on international flights including quarantine for arrivals
- Night-time curfew
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The problem is âplaying by the rulesâ includes packed underground trains from lots of businesses that have deemed their employees âessentialâ.
Without full lockdown weâre merely delaying the spread, not stopping it⌠I doubt the government is prepared to go that far though, since delaying may be enough (and was the original plan, slow it down, everyone gets it but not at the same time so the NHS can cope).
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Two things can both be increasing exponentially, but at different rates. For example, if something doubles every two days, that is an exponential increase. If something else doubles every two years, that is also an exponential increase, but at a slower rate.
Infections tend to be exponential by definition because an exponential is something where the number of existing cases affects the number of future cases, as long as all other factors remain constant.
Assuming a constant proportion of infections resulting in a fatality (e.g. 2%) the number of deaths will also be exponential.
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