Captain Marvel to go exclusively to Disney+ service after theatrical release

(Simon B) #1

It looks like Disney are getting serious with their proposed Netflix rival, Disney+.

Good idea? Bad idea? Personally I can’t see them gaining on any ground on Netflix any time soon, even with Marvel and Star Wars stuff (which most people will just watch once in the cinema anyway).

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#2

I would have been surprised if they had done anything except this!

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#3

Buy all my films off itunes anyway never really use things like Netflix Amazon prime for watching movies anyway

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(Emma (still not the app)) #4

I think it’s a good strategy. I don’t have Netflix but I’d seriously consider Disney+ because of the proposed Marvel content.

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#5

It’s a good idea, they own the stuff and want to rival Netflix, Amazon etc

I can see it being popular for parents in that they could put Disney stuff on the TV for the kids to keep them quiet. I’d consider signing up if the Marvel stuff was new series of Daredevil etc.

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#6

Already has a Disney service currently £4.99 a month my change i the name and probably the price kids have it on tablets

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(Jonathon) #7

It would just be one of those services I sign up for when I want to watch something then cancel.

Netflix has a guaranteed monthly amount from me. If I want to watch a series or film I’ll pay the £X a month for one month to watch then cancel.

Personally I don’t watch enough Disney to warrant a monthly service.

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#8

I haven’t really been following Disney+ (except to know that it’s a thing). Do we know if it’s going to be a US only service at launch?

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#9

Yeah it will be US only initially but probably not for long

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(Brian Hunter) #10

Disney pretty much own all modern culture, so they could probably do well with a streaming service.

Smart move, buy every franchise in film and then build a streaming platform around that.

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(Dan V) #11

At launch - 12 November - yes US only. Western Europe is planned for Q1/2 of 2020 (which will mean the closedown of DisneyLife)

Aggressively priced too - $6.99/month or $69.99/year.

Be interesting to see what Apple prices their offering at

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(Brian Hunter) #12

Found this thread about Disney+. Says it’s coming to Western Europe for half of 2020. Looks like a winner if you have kids.

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(Dan V) #13

Not just for kids :grinning:

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(Sarcasm is the finest form of wit.) #14

Try again. I have friends who will watch these multiple times in the cinema, then binge watch them all before the next movie comes out. THIS is the market Disney have and I’d bet they have a good idea of it from all the merchandising across Marvel and Disney movies… add in Touchstone Pictures, the Muppets, ABC, ESPN, … a pretty good captive audience to start with??

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(Harry Dover) #15

I also find this topic extremely interesting.

Netflix
First let me start by talking about Netflix. Looking at the fundamentals they are a cursed stock.

Below average quality, their balance sheet makes no sense, they are spending with little upside (based on balance sheet.)

Everyone and their dog owns a share in Netflix, the value is horrific, honestly just painfully bad. They are extremely overprices based on their fundamentals.

Finally we have the future projections, these are pretty average compared to everyone else. Yeah they are predicted to make more money and bring in more customers, but in the grand scheme of everyone, they aren’t doing anything amazing.

Now the issue here is we know that Netflix is hot because they have broken ground, have excellent first party programs, have started partnerships (new comedy channel that isn’t exclusively on Netflix,) and they have some very VERY impressive technology.

15% of all internet bandwidth is for Netflix, that is impressive stuff. http://fortune.com/2018/10/02/netflix-consumes-15-percent-of-global-internet-bandwidth/

The issue is the fundamentals for Netflix are completely meaningless. For a lot of the FAANG the value of what they do is hard to put down on paper.

Disney
So let’s talk about Disney who are easier to analyse.

Same structure as before, this time however the quality is above average. Disney have cash to splash and they can do so without hurting the business. I’m not saying they could close down a business line over night and not notice, but these guys can weather a storm.

In terms of value, they are slightly below average as Disney is a large firm that has many business lines and different ways to generate revenue, it’s a safer bet than a firm that is focused in one area. Flip side is if one section does extremely well they probably have an under-performing area that is sucking up profits, but they can easily control that.

Finally what are the analysts saying, they have high hopes. Not the highest, again we are talking about above average, C+ territory. However this again is where having these wide business lines helps. Analysts could be saying this is going to be a flop (they aren’t) but that won’t impact the rest of their business.

Who will win?
Netflix uses technology to get an edge on the competition and to always stay one step ahead (remember they were A/B testing a new series by changing what the first episode was?) These guys live and breath innovation, they basically wrote the handbook on how to use AWS and to build the ultimate scalable machine. But does that mean they can fight against a major player when it comes down to exclusives?

Disney eat business for breakfast, they see something they like and swing in and take over. Disney entering any area is something to take note of, where they go others will follow. Disney has an extremely strong brand and lots of content they can produce. Whereas Netflix has started as tech and then gone into production, Disney is the production king who is now moving into tech.

That all said and done, I don’t believe Disney will create a huge dent in Netflix’s business. The pie is large enough to share and they can both easily find their own vertical. It will take a while for Disney to get to the same technical experience and overcome the same issues that Netflix has already faced. Also if the plan does bring any success it’s easy for Disney to back out shut it down and go back to 3rd parties. Or they can use this as leverage to do very lucrative exclusivity deals (think Star Wars when they forced cinemas to only show their stuff and no other major blockbuster at the same time.)

I don’t know if this will make Disney a more valuable company or a more attractive investment. They already have enough reasons for you to invest, this doesn’t really add much in my view.

This will however test the foundations of Netflix and give them a chance to prove themselves in gladiatorial combat.

If Netflix doesn’t suffer high churn and they can keep up their acquisition numbers with Disney on the block, then Netflix will get a very big gold star and it will deter anyone else from attempting the same move.

If Netflix suffers with this move, even if Disney doesn’t view the venture as successful, you can expect more big production firms to make the same move. Netflix will either use this to go into B2B to white-label their solution and help protect it’self, or they will focus on a vertical.

What am I doing about it?
Nothing.

I don’t have an investment in Netflix because it’s too expensive which makes it harder to make longer term gains. I have great respect for the company but I’m happy using my capital elsewhere.

As for Disney, they are too big a firm for me to invest directly in them. I stay away from conglomerates as a general rule.

While my funds do have exposure into both Disney and Netflix it’s not something I’ll be personally taking a direct investment view on.

Netflix has a lot to gain or lose. For Disney this is a nice experiment that many people will be watching.

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(Simon B) #16

I said most people. What you’re describing, by definition, is the niche core fanbase.

I would bet that most of the people who watch Star Wars watch it once in the cinema, because that’s literally true of all movies. That doesn’t negate the existence of the hardcore fan minority who see something multiple times, or even the group of people who aren’t hardcore fans but like it enough to see it twice, but they aren’t the majority.

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