What does this mean? - Crowdcube figures

Your return on investment can not be known until the shares go public or the company sold (or dividend declared) until then their face value is irrelevant as you just buying a bit of paper.

We’re 100% not expecting to totally fill the round — the aim for this was to give existing investors the option of buying more shares. Some people don’t take that up, which is totally fine :slight_smile: The alternative is doing a mad rush of fastest-finger-first to buy shares, which IMO is a crappy experience for existing investors!

hmm you’re buying a bit of paper for a price :slight_smile: if the IPO is for £2.30 you would have made money on the first two rounds but lost on this round - Im not suggesting it would be for £2.30 , but as Tommy said its all in the perception of is it worth the punt on what you personally think the value of the company will be and is that enough of an incentive to buy at this price

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I still think we should be able to mop up any straggler shares!

Hi Tristan

  1. if you don’t fill the round those that commit to buy presumably get their shares, the round isn’t cancelled for not achieving target ?
  2. does anything happen with the unfilled shares i.e. they aren’t offered to the people that committed to their “reduced” allocation ?
  3. will they be offered to anyone else ?
    edit
    and
  4. Is there any way that investors that don’t want their allocation can offer it to anybody else ? - I appreciate this would probably become a nightmare logistically - but some people that missed out last time are desperate to invest :slight_smile:
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One thing I’ve consistently struggled with is trying to find any sort of UK historical comparison to the journey that Monzo seems to be on to inform an investment decision.

My gut tells me that they’re a good bet even if you get in now at ~£2 a share, but I don’t have much in the way of research to base that on.

I guess we’ll see!

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not similar really, but if you look at the perceived potential from investors of Metro bank who have just turned to profit after about 4 or 5 years of losses while they set up - valued at around 2Bn when they were making losses 18 months ago - I could see Monzo or a similar “challenger” bank being the same sort of ball park :slight_smile:
lol fingers crossed :slight_smile:

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But obviously when you decide whether to buy shares or not you take into account a probabilistic range of predicted outcomes to calculate risk vs return. Even if a share is publicly traded you don’t know what the future value will be when you come to sell, that is always a prediction. Obviously you’re better off buying shares at 50p than at £2.50, much as it was better to buy Facebook at $20 rather than at $100 (although timescales matter too)

Nope — this is a specific round type with Crowdcube that’s not like a normal raise.

We would love to offer them to other investors but as you say, it becomes a total nightmare and takes a long time! We have to close this round within 45 days so unfortunately there just really isn’t time to go through multiple rounds of reallocation :frowning: So we took the decision to give everyone a fair share and not force you to rush to get shares. I hope that makes sense and is an understandable decision!

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Can’t seem to find the thread from the other day about the current round, so starting another. Seems to be flagging slightly on Crowdcube - why do you think that is? Lack of USP? Lack of progress? Valuation?

What about the good things that have made you invest again?

flagging due to restrictions on amount invested.
previously there was a £1000 limit so people may perhaps invest a few hundred, but if they are this time told they have say a £50 limit they may not bother

https://community.monzo.com/t/what-does-this-mean/27064?u=alisufyan

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Is your limit still low now they’ve fixed the bug? I wonder how many people haven’t looked since.

good point. I will suggest to the 3 people who discussed it with me that they all check. cheers

I imagine the folk who put in big investments previously will have taken up this round, those who put in smaller investments may not think it is worth it or they may have invested previously just so they can be part of the journey and are not interested in increasing their stake.

Some may also be waiting until the 2018 raise but bare in mind I suspect the share will be more expensive by then so if you can buy now, you probably should.

I’ve replied to this in another thread — this is totally expected. Because we’ve limited everyone’s allocations to ensure everybody who invested before has the option to invest again, we definitely won’t hit the full £1.5m :slight_smile: The alternative is doing a crazy “first to click invest” style round (you might remember that from previously :wink: ) which IMO is not fair to those who’ve invested before.

We therefore took the decision to ensure everyone had plenty of time to make a well-informed decision and accepted that would mean we wouldn’t reach the full £1.5m. That’s totally not an issue on our side though and I fully expect the round next year to be similar to the previous open-to-all rounds (in terms of demand)!

For me personally, I am on the fence (I’ve invested, but I’m considering changing that before the round is over). The pre money valuation is now high - £220,000,000. There’s less risk now, but also less upside. If it IPOs, what valuation could we expect? £1bn, £10bn? Standard Chartered has a market cap of around $30bn and that’s a much larger scale bank.

There’s also more competition now - There’s a few key features Monzo are missing - It lacks a web interface or a focus on business - where there is an opportunity to make significantly more money due to the size of the accounts and also the competition is much worse due to traditional business bank accounts being bad. I can understand them electing not to pursue this course, due to their goals (which aren’t always clear to me), but they will need to get established outside the UK as soon as possible if they are to aiming for a billion customers.

Very little integrations have appeared so far with other software, which I’m sure will come once the current account is in full flow. But again it’s much more valuable from a business perspective.

Finally, passion capital have elected not to invest in this round. Which is a neutral event - every capital firm has it’s targets and limits.

EDIT: Passion capital have invested

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Thanks Tristan. Will existing people get a headstart in 2018, or will that be fastest finger again? Also do you expect the valuation to change again for that?

No details to share right now I’m afraid but we’ve said we want to ensure that we don’t have people disappointed like last time :wink:

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I’m afraid this part isn’t quite true :slight_smile: Passion have invested in this round, as mentioned in our blog post

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