So annecdotally a lot of people I am speaking to (who are not already investors) are keen to invest next Wednesday. I have a feeling the (minimum £5m) shares that will be available after existing investors have had their fill are going to sell VERY fast.
a) Do we have any bets on how long it is going to take to sell all the remaining shares? If it took 96 seconds for £1m - I think all £5+m will be done in 5-8 minutes.
b) How are Monzo going to manage demand? I am guessing it is being done in app so its customers only, speedy UX (they know your details) and the servers are up to the load…but I can’t help thinking there is a high chance everything crashes at 10:02 on Wednesday 5th.
What does everybody else think?
I think it’s pretty unlikely that all existing investors will spend the full maximum £2000, so we expect more than £5mil worth to be up for grabs on Wednesday…
I think 5-8 minutes is pretty optimistic although that would be an incredible feat for sure. Guess we will just have to wait and see.
Don’t scare me with these things!
Personally only looking to invest a few hundred but ill admittedly be extremely disappointed if i miss out on my chance to
@simonb you say that, but I think ‘all sold in 1 day’ was probably viewed as optimistic for that 96 second raise, but it turns out I and A LOT of other people were sat there at release time frantically battering keyboards to get into the round.
Considering the number of people who know about this round and the previous track record for a) selling out quickly, and b) meteoric share price growth, I think a rapid sale is almost guaranteed…the only question in my mind is how rapid?
I’m currently in the process of liquidating my other investments (i.e. selling off my premium bonds and transferring my spare pennies over to my Monzo account!) in preparation for next week, but I won’t be able to buy until about 11am.
The thought that I might miss out – again – because there will be another rush does not fill me with happiness. I’m not saying I’ll be going all Falling Down at Monzo HQ or anything, but I won’t be happy!
@tbutz a lot of my friends are in the same position so . Its great from a Monzo perspective if they sell fast obviously, but I actually think it will be much better for customers if they don’t. I wonder if there is any merit in releasing tranches at staggered intervals to spread the opportunity and give people who may have busy diaries multiple chances to bite the apple…
Well… there’s more shares for you then if there all gone in minutes. 10am I’m working, so no chance for me.
Had no luck last time, no advance link for us despite being told we’d get priority next time, so hopefully it will be easy enough this time round.
Will I get a notification once they are selling? I’d like to purchase some.
I don’t think this is going to happen in 10 mins.
Brewdog recently closed their £20m round after 1 YEAR of shaking everyone’s pockets, so it’s not that easy. Although I do expect Monzo to complete this within days rather than months because of the huge excitement and user base.
The average existing holder invested around £500 at each previous round, so for them to suddenly average £2000 when the price is so much higher, I highly doubt. If they average on the low side of £500 each then that’s about £3m taken and £17m left to new buyers.
Those new buyers will probably average less than £500 because the first rounds had a lot of startup investors hitting the maximums. I don’t know for sure but from speaking to friends, they’re thinking of £10-100. They mainly want bragging rights and an investor card rather than a chunk of equity.
Personally I don’t know if I’ll invest in this round. For me it works out something like investing another 35% of what I already have to get an extra 6-7% of shares. I do feel £1bn is cheap though so we’ll see…
I think anyone worried about not getting in within the first 10 mins should chill out. If there is £17m on offer and you are in the 5% of people who actually engage with the community and know what’s going on with Monzo, it’s extremely likely you will have loads of time to invest this time.
there will be plenty of shares !! an article on here explains that existing investors wouldn’t be able to dividing max shares with number of existing there should be plenty but be quick on Wednesday !!
Do you plan to do running updates on how fast shares are selling? Some stats on a page, perhaps?
I think you’re going to see a long tail effect. A big rush at the beginning soaking up quite a few million, and then a gradual falloff. I doubt that you are going to see the same pressure throughout when there are so many more shares. It’s a hard trade-off between wanting to sell all the shares and not wanting people to be disappointed .
I always appreciate your well laid out, balanced posts. Particularly relating to investing/crowdfunding. Thanks.
Errr…@simonb is this number right? I tapped through as fast as I could but that is an awfully big number for 10:01…
That number of £12,567,094 is wrong — we’re just looking into it now. Currently at more like £500k.
I dread to think of the forum meltdown if it would of been 12 mil is minutes… aha!
Phew! That was not boding well for my friends On Wednesday!
I did mine about 5 mins ago and it was at 300,000 something