ditto Peter, Danny and Andy - specific dates specific times, otherwise its a void bet
Hoisted by my own petard*
Can I set my own terms?
1.6m 1400 31st December 2018
2.0m 1400 30th March 2019
Subject to revision if/when I take a proper look at the data!!
*probably the only time that phrase has been used on the internet in 2018
We are very much hoping to accelerate growth at this point. We are trying a few things - like the £5 referral test and some ideas around advertising. But right now, we aren’t afraid to say that we don’t know what the impact of these things will be. So it remains to be seen. Word of mouth growth is still strong and that actually seems to be increasing at a decent rate too, but that won’t get us to 2 million on it’s own for a while. There might not be a magic button that sends things skyrocketing but equally… There might be! Or, more likely, perhaps a few different efforts will combine and turn out to be larger than the sum of their parts.
Either way it’s going to be exciting to find out ️
keep on doing what you’re doing then sending funds from pots - automagically swept into savings interest / ISA account , then crowdfunding round - 2 mill in no time
The shape of the curve will be interesting. It has been a straight line for months, which I’ve always thought was weird, unless there’s some limit to the number of daily signups. I would have expected it to be more exponential if the growth is word of mouth, but either way, there will soon come a point where Monzo will have to move from being an exciting new idea to being something that the majority will switch to. This includes people who:
- Usually run out of money in the last week of the month, and who think 50p is a lot.
- Want all their products with the same bank.
- Are not used to contacting their bank, so don’t care about service.
- Hate switching banks.
- Never travel.
- Just don’t care.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it proved impossible to get to 2m without going abroad, and I don’t think that’s necessarily a bad thing. If they can do 1m in fifty countries, they’ll be laughing.
Biggest threat to Monzo in 2019
The key to this is hockey stick growth. I think that’s what Monzo is trying to crack atm - it feels to me that we’re are close to a tipping point, but something needs to give. That’s the reason for the experiments in growth, I suppose.
(Then there’s the whole other issue of #fullmonzo vs everyone just having a second Monzo account…)
Not a revision on a previous guess since I never made an initial one. But, I’m gunna stab at April 15th…
Is there any data to go off ? Or am I gonna have to get my hot coral crystal ball out and use that instead
You could check how long it took to get to 1m users (I’m not sure how long that was), then check how long it took to gain the almost 485,000 users since then (September 22nd 2018 - now … a little over 4 months) and try to figure out a trajectory from that to determine roughly when the 2m point could be.
Personally I can’t be bothered working out all of that, so just did some very very rough mental arithmetic to take somewhere around 2/3 of the time it took to gain these 485,000 users (somewhere around 2.67 months) and add it to the current date.
Well if there’s a data set I was just gonna stick in Pandas or something and see if I could extrapolate the trend
I may be trying to overthink something that’s just a bit of fun…
I’m one of those people who finds it interesting to see if the stats bot or whatever lines up with just random guesses or not.
I reckon they’ll hit 2 million users around 2019-08-19.
There’s a graph here for those interested.
It looks like growth is actually accelerating a bit - so I’m going 15 weeks from today which I think is 22/05/19
Just a general comment I find looking at Grafana and trying to figure out why there are peaks in the account openings per day interesting
Passed 1.5 million
I think factoring in the immenient business accounts launch i can see it hitting 2 million by the end of may
That number only includes personal current accounts so will be interesting to see if business accounts will be included