I completely agree with this myself. However, I still don’t feel Monzo are likely to do it.
Manual accounts scream ‘power user’ to me, and we have had very few (if any) features directed to power users over the years.
Custom categories are arbitrarily limited, tags were a Monzo day hack which have never been fully developed, we are only just starting to see the faintest promise of customisation with the overview screen, and so on.
So, I’d love it if it happened, but I would be very surprised.
All very reliant on VC funding and no real clear way to create their own revenue. The Payments side will grow, but you’re not making more than a few pennies per transaction, and the value added of AISP services isn’t creating huge revenues, it might in the future, just seems to early, and the burn rates of cash too high.
I can see the continued M&A by big companies either defending their space in Payments, or strategic purchases to catch up as Apple did with Credit Kudos
See I dunno. Monzo seems all in on the financial control centre thing - and you just won’t be able to do that unless you have some sort of manual account.
But yes, coming this year is probably one of my more optimistic predictions…
Do you know the workaround hack? 
I think that’s a good summary and certainly aligns with my thoughts too. I think, without going too deep, that this is part of the problem Monzo may face with Trends too. Do people really care enough about a service to pay for it? Granted you do get a lot more for that last option though.
I noted lumio went in quickly on the paid tiers, and specifically noted that “the reason is that we’re here for the long run” so at least they’re honest about noting investor cash burn and the need for self-sufficiency.
Still, hopefully there will be a non monzo option for a little longer while FD get a proper insights too rolled out. (Doesn’t hold breath)
Say what?
I was being a bit dramatic, but card from pot doesn’t appear on the export, so if you use it, it doesn’t tally.
Cash accounts have been on the radar in the past: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz6DV3MnnKs (If you want to skip the preamble, 10 minutes gives you an insight into their thoughts on cash). It certainly seems somewhat of a precursor to being able to make money work for everyone globally.
Suspect 3 years on and a pandemic which accelerated the switch away from cash, even in places like Japan, will make a lot of that obsolete.
@Peter_G route to expansion seems about right, with Ireland being an obvious first stop, but there are cultural issues in each market you have to address to make it work. So for example Japan and QR codes/ Rakuten pay is one in my mind after being in Tokyo in November
think Tom always used to talk about issues in N26 offer where translations were wrong, or talking about the home market in an odd way, as it was a single offer from Germany.
I have noticed that there’s very little IPO chat in recent months. I wonder if we’re now looking at 2025 or even later!
I think they just don’t speculate on it, so there’s no chat on it, because there’s no movement on it. Any chat previously is just people speculating it’s coming.
My money’s on late 2024.
Yeah, I think this is why they’ve done the long yards in the US to make this right. Not done yet, though!
Ireland seems to be the obvious bridge point into the EU: no language issues and only very light localisation. Biggest concern would be EU licence, technical reconfiguration for native IBAN etc, and connection to SEPA payment platforms. But all needed if you’re doing to go elsewhere into the EU.
Indeed. I can’t see Monzo doing a once-then-done English language Ireland based EU account. Instead, I’d be expecting a full domestic localisation for all of the big countries with local IBAN prefixes and tailored products. I can see them also offering a pan-EU English product, too. But they’d probably want to go for the fully localised versions.
I chose France as the big EU country to go first with as it’s probably a choice between them, Germany, Italy and Spain. Germany has N26 so increased competition, and Italy and Spain aren’t quite as big markets. France has been actively courting British fintechs and the language localisation and support will work (with a few small tweaks) for Switzerland and parts of Belgium too.
So my EU target list would be:
I can also see Monzo going north to Canada once they’re done with the US, and south to Latin America once they’ve built Spanish support in the EU.
I’m a bit euro-centric in my thinking though. I’m wondering whether places like India, Japan or Brazil would appeal. But I don’t really know enough about those markets to make a call.
Europe almost certainly next though.
Personally I don’t think expansion comes next year. With cost of capital these days I suspect Monzo will want to entrench in the UK, and use the money earned there to develop the product and market themselves more (UK) such that they’re unbeatable, but also to fuel development in the US.
I think Canada will be next after America (within 3 years). I think they’ll let Europe go to Starling/N26/Revolut until 5-10 years down the line when money/funding is no issue and the only thing they can do to develop the business is grow user numbers.
Fair argument.
I suppose what I envisaged in my original post was the beginnings of a new office, a handful of staff and nowhere near a launch.
I think you’re right about conserving capital - it won’t be quick. The US has been, what, four years in the making?
Brilliant post and some wonderful predictions. Please whisper these in TS’ ear and make it so 
I reckon Australia could be a fair shout for international expansion after north America.
Ireland would be a good one too but I think before they start venturing further into Europe Monzo would probably stick to the easier path of locations that are English speaking.
Also, surely between the UK, North America, and Australia they’d be able to provide 24hr support across the 3 regions easily enough?
That being said I don’t see further expansion on the immediate horizon.
Australia has been a complete car crash for fintechs, needs the regulator to sort out the playing field a bit more
I tend to agree with this. I can’t see Monzo expanding at all to be honest, rather just shoring up in current markets.
But who knows.
Great read and thought provoking thank you
I predict Monzo will IPO in 2023. after announcing far better than expected profits 
The door is open for a company like Monzo to IPO.
The IPO market is dead at the moment,so for a company like Monzo who have over 6 million active customers and are going to show a fantastic increase in profits this year,then in my opinion the time is now and they don’t need to wait till 2024.
Just to add another prediction, I reckon the valuation is about £12 billion