Post-Liquidity Event Chat

FYI, the US fintech that looks most like Monzo is Chime and last night they filed their intention to go public this year. Stats look remarkably similar to Monzo so I’ll be paying very close attention to their valuation

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I was literally just coming to this page to post this! Feels like a lot of comparables… with Monzo coming out on top in my opinion. Higher customer numbers, slightly less ARPU (monzo - $200 vs chime - $250) which i assume could be down to higher intercharge fees? Monzo has a business bank, not sure Chime does and the ARPU is significantly higher for business banking

If they successfully IPO at $15b (£10b), then Monzo should be close to this figure, perhaps above

Does anybody have a summary of the comparable stats for monzo?

The Annual Report from last year covers some of the same data points and TS also has a recent interview that talked about average revenue per user/customer.

That said, I’m expecting the Annual Report to come out in the next 2-3 weeks so hopefully we’ll get more up to date info then (last year’s Annual Report was released 3 June 2024).

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Looking forward to the updated numbers and hopefully by the time of the IPO they would improve further.

Personally, I don’t think 8-10x revenue multiple valuation is over the top given that competitors have valuation multiples higher than this.

Let’s wait and see.

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I lost track of this - what does £10 billion look like per share?

As an investor I’m most curious to see where further expansion may come from. They could move into mortgages or provide a deeper business banking offering in the UK. Lots of people are wedding to their legacy banks but I think younger people who have no significant banking history are more likely to go for a fintech bank, so I would expect customer numbers to keep growing a million or two a year for good few years in the UK.

Beyond the UK, a year ago in the annual report they said they were in the early stages of setting up an Irish office. Has there been any update on this? Overseas expansion talk seems to have gone very quiet and whilst there may be a case for providing a fully fledged offering before expanding markets, there is a danger that Revolut ends up winning that battle despite having (arguably) an inferior product.

Plenty of Ireland-based risk-related positions (among others) still being advertised: Careers at Monzo

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Interesting reviewing the job board. There are also posts in Barcelona being advertised.

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£4.5bn valuation was reportedly c.£15.50 per share. At a £10bn that would make it c.£30+ per share (assuming some dilution in between).

Recruiting for an Investor Relations Manager - Might not necessarily mean anything, but interesting nonetheless

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Numbers are out it seems. The article is a bit vague on what the info is based on, but they say 85 Million in pre tax profit.

https://www.abcmoney.co.uk/2025/05/monzos-meteoric-rise-continues-with-record-growth-in-2025/

Good find, but sadly alarm bells all over it. Leaving aside the style (auto-translated?) there’s this clanger:

Specifically, Monzo, a company founded in Brighton

Annual report should be due at any time though. Let’s have a new topic for that when it hits!

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yes agreed, a bit weird that article

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Vague, sometimes right, sometimes not - has a bit of AI slob vibes to me.

Curious to know more when the official report is out!

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If £85m is the actual profit figure then I’m not surprised the touted IPO valuations have been so low - they should be doing achieving much more than that with interest rates as they have been :smirking_face:

Interesting. I wonder if we might see reduced profits because they’re self funding investment into the EU? That would seem a sensible use of funds… Or is it not accounted for that way?

It’s accounted for that way, and that’s why profit isn’t that relevant to the valuation.

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Just had a look at the annual report. Shares outstanding 2025 are 237525787. If I divide the 4,5 bn valuation by the number of shares I get to a share price of 18,94.

My own o3 model analysis of the report estimates an IPO share price between £25 - £49, depending on a few factors. £37 is the base case.

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