How many potential investors


(Paul) #1

With the total pledges now over £11.5m it is looking like it may now reach the 12m point and possibly beyond. There are going to be a lot of enthusiastic potential investors that are going to be disappointed on the big day when they do not get their congratulatory email and an invite to invest. Is it now possible to release the figure of how many potential investors there are that has brought the pledges up to this total so far? It would be nice what the odds are in getting that invite.


(Marta) #2

Hi @Brightlight :slight_smile:
While percentages might have changed slightly, during Monzo Open Office, it was released that average pledge was £277-290 when Monzo was about £4kk on the counter or slightly below.

It’s good top-level indicator, but my gut tells me that average pledge decreased slightly later in time (based on absolutely no scientific proof).

You can find more stats about pledged in this video, 6:40(ish) is when stats start:

I believe Monzo will offer more stats once crowdfunding is closed, transparency is important. :slight_smile:


(Paul) #3

@Avishai Thanks for your comment. As always they are more than welcome. But my interest is not percentages of pledge values but the total amount of people that have shown an interest in this fund raising exercise. If this round of fund raising was live on Crowd Cube we would clearly see the number of investors so far that has invested in the company. Okay admittedly this pledge excercise is more of a lottery than people actually investing at the moment. But it’s still good to know how many people have pledged so far.


(Marta) #4

Well, dividing total pledged so far by average pledge value, can - very loosely - give you number of investors. So that’s around 39,000-40,000 people.
It’s a bit far-fetched, I absolutely agree, because it’s based on average pledge from early days. However, it feels like best assumption we can make until crowdfunding ends and Monzo gives us real, final stats. :slight_smile:


(Alex Sherwood) #5

That’s a nice idea but unfortunately I don’t think the calculation’s quite that simple.

My understanding is that ballot will select users who pledged at random. Each user’s pledge will then be deducted from the amount that was allocated for CrowdCube investors to invest & once the total allocation = the pledges of everyone who was chosen at random, that’s it.

So obviously if every person who’s selected has pledged £1,000 (though the amount you pledge does not impact your chance of being chosen), fewer users will have the chance to invest than if every person who’s selected has pledged £10.

On top of that, if the users who are selected don’t invest the full amount that they pledged (& I expect that will be what happens), Monzo will repeat this process until the total allocation is used up. So even if you use the average pledge from the presentation to calculate the likelihood of being able to invest, as I did here -

in reality, the odds are probably better.


(Paul) #6

I think we are getting too mathematical to a simple question of how many people have shown an interest in investing in Monzo in this new round. Under Monzo’s transparency banner and the fact that everyone’s interest in pledging is logged. I think it is fairly easy to get those figures.


(Alex Sherwood) #7

Well you did specifically say that you’re asking the question because

:slight_smile:

But yes it would be nice to know this

& as Marta says I expect Monzo will let us know but I’m not sure it makes sense to do so until the period for pledges ends at midday 14th March.


(Priyesh Patel) #8

To give a quick update, we currently have just over 35,000 people preregistered to invest, with an average pledge of around £330.


(Paul) #9

@alexs Haha. Touché Alex. :grin:


(Paul) #10

Thanks Priyesh. That is great news for Monzo. And now fingers crossed :crossed_fingers: for the big day.


(Alex Sherwood) #11

Ha! I’m glad Priyesh took the time out to answer this now too :slight_smile:

So a £330 average pledge means there would be a minimum of 1,888 new investors this time around [1]. If that is the average pledge of the users who’re selected in the ballot too then, in the worst case scenario, the odds of investing would be about 1 / 19 [2] :grimacing:

But in reality the odds are better because

  • My calculation assumes that all of the 1,877 existing investors will invest their full allowance of £1,000 (leaving £623,000 for new investors), which they won’t
  • Each of the selected investors does invest the full amount that they pledged & my guess is they won’t

Calculations:

 [1] 623,000 / 330 = 1,887.87
 [2] 35,000 / 1,887 = 18.54

(Paul) #12

@alexs. I think I owe you a pint :beers: Nicely put Alex.


(Alexander Webster) #13

Looks like a lot of non UK residents who cannot obtain a card, have invested.


(Alex Sherwood) #14

I’d be interested to know what’s given you that impression?


(Alexander Webster) #15

Because they downloaded the Ap and waited for their card only to be informed a couple of weeks later that cards are only supplied to UK residents. Moreover they submitted most of their phone book contacts when prompted to do so by Monzo in the understanding that they would be bumped up in the ‘Q’. Not good.


( related to Monzo CEO, Investor in Monzo ) #16

how many non Uk resident investors do you think there are ?


(Alexander Webster) #17

No idea, how many UK investors do you think there are?


( related to Monzo CEO, Investor in Monzo ) #18

I have no idea how many UK residents have invested :slight_smile: - or at least registered to invest - but your post suggests you know how many non uk investors there are that aren’t resident in the UK

  • you said - “Looks like a lot of non UK residents who cannot obtain a card, have invested.”

  • how do you know this ? and what numbers are you suggesting ? and where are you getting the information as to the investors domicile from ? and whether they have or don’t have a card ?


(system) #19

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