That’s what people have been discussing for the last 4 days.
Is anyone familiar with the workings of Companies House filings?
I receive online notifications of any forms or documents submitted in respect of Monzo, and there has been a lot of activity of late. Most of it seems to have been retrospective tidying up, but 2 yesterday had interesting descriptions
- Notification of Monzo Bank Holding Group Ltd as a person with significant control on 12th September 2023.
- Withdrawal of a person with significant control on 30th October 2023.
Owt or nowt?
Nothing exciting. Formalising previous announcements of holding company ownership of monzo bank uk.
sorry couldn’t help it!
Around 10% higher valuation than last time. Although given the higher interest rate environment and the depressed valuations that have followed it’s good that it’s still growing.
Interested to see what the share price would be following this round.
I would expect any investor coming in at this rounding maybe looking to generate a return of 1.5x to 2x on their money. I know it’s not as easy as that but would that mean a potential IPO valuation of £6bn to £8bn? 
I have zero idea how it works, but that seems high for an established business? Would it not be the case that an investor would happily take say 20% on a business that you can see an IPO isn’t far away? Versus something that you’re going to invest in that’s a lot further from that point, that you’d want double your money to make it worth the risk?
https://www.capitalg.com/ won’t be investing for a 20% return.
I’d imagine it multiples return still, even at a $4bn valuation now.
VCs won’t get out of bed for 20% return even if it’s a Late Stage VC.
My understanding is that Late Stage VCs tend to look for a 2x to 3x returns. Given that Monzo could be planning an IPO late 2024 or 2025 it means they won’t be tied in for long, therefore even with a 1.5x return their IRR would look good.
My guess would be that a 2x would be their base case, 1.5x worse case and 2.5x best case.
Based on £4bn valuation at this round maybe an IPO valuation could be:
Base: £8bn
Worse: £6bn
Best: £10bn
Also, not as easy at that, if an IPO is over subscribed and is in demand this could also drive the valuation up as well as that first share price pop post IPO.
So what return would they be looking at achieving then? ANY return would be nice, after my previous experience of start-up finance, and being well stitched up. Allegedly.
Later stage VCs typically look for 3-5x return, so I’ve no reason to think Google isn’t the same here.
I was being conservative since there isn’t a long wait for the IPO I would’ve expected a lower multiple.
I just hope it’s a ridiculous multiple because I’d like to see a £100k return net of CGT and Crowdcube fee, for which I think the share price at IPO has to be around £40 per share that’s if you’ve been involved in all funding round and invested the max which means you should be holding around c.3,400 shares.
It’s a shame it wasn’t eligible for EIS.
I was hoping for a little more than £100k!! Invested fully in all rounds. Financial services firms aren’t eligible for EIS sadly, although I spoke to a tax planner a while ago and there may be something you can do, I’ve not looked into it yet though but the CGT bill is growing by the day
Perversely, I’d love to have a huge capital gains bill for Monzo.
More than £100k after taxes and fees would be a bonus.
If there are tax advisors who have also invested in all Monzo rounds then it would be good to hear from them on this forum.
I’d like to say now but maybe nearer to time it might be worth setting up a dedicated topic to give guidance to Crowdcube investors if there are any ways in which we can minimise Capital Gains Tax and I don’t mean offsetting against historic loses or selling shares in small chunks over years, surely there have to be other options.
They’re only really an established business in the U.K.
They have the whole world to grow into and conquer and they’re only just getting started with a toe dip in the US. Plenty of growth potential yet.
Yes I agree… I think it might even be worth doing now in fact. I would also like to understand more about how it will all work post liquidity event… whether that be IPO, secondary market, etc. Theoretically, if Monzo IPO’d tomorrow, how would Crowdcube handle that? Presumably Crowdcube have already handled exits in some shape or form…?
I agree with @N26throwaway … I think there’s a lot more potential here. They’ve grown deeper roots with individual customers than other Digital Banks who’ve expanded into more markets, but with less share of wallet per customer. N26 being a prime example, ironically. If they’re able to replicate a similar level of success in a few key markets, theres tonnes of potential. My thoughts are that the Capital G funding will help them to expand into the US and/or with acquisitions, then the valuation could be substantially higher, wouldnt even like to speculate what that might be
I know what you mean but there will be many who would want to exit. Also when you look at the share price trend post IPO over a period of time it doesn’t tend to be great, Deliveroo as one example.
Given that size of people wanting to probably exit I don’t think we will really have much of a say or control.
I would imagine we might not be able to sell all shares on day one, usually they will limit how much we can sell on day one and then we are likely to be forced by regulations to hold on to the remaining shares for 7 days before we can sell further.
That’s more to do with the macroenvironment and industry. Deliveroo IPO’d near the top of the market and is still unprofitable… but i get your point, IPO performance has been abysmal recently.
There’ll be lots of people wanting to exit, but imagine lots of people queuing up to buy if valued appropriately. Who knows… 