Monzo (and fintech) in 2021: Predictions

NatWest even ran adverts for the cash app, but the angle was that you’ve lost your wallet/card but still have your phone. You still need to pin in the code it gives you so you still need the antibac or use the end of your keys.

I think I can probably go 2021 without needing an ATM tbh. I think it was once or twice in total for 2020.

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It is unclear how much of Starling profit came from these CBILS loans, but there are many articles online comparing Monzo and Starling business model. Starling business model on one hand focused on borrowing and making money on interest while monzo I believe had more of a focused on making money from customers spending. As an example, when I first open a Starling account was given a credit limit of several thousand which can be managed between loans and the overdraft, they did not discourage folk from going into their overdraft/taking out a loan completely different experience when first opening a new Monzo account which an overdraft did not come by default. The simple fact is Monzo has lost money and they need to put a real focus in 2021 on making a profit for the reasons I put before.

If you’re interested, my estimate is it was somewhere around 45% of their revenue in October and is likely even higher now compared to October. Numbers from this report:

  • ~£1.5 billion of lending, of which ~£1.4 billion is government backed (ie. has zero credit risk and will be paid for by the taxpayer).
  • £5.5 million of net interest income which will mainly be revenue from lending.

Assuming that ~300k of the net interest income comes from deposits sitting with the Bank of England (£4 billion at 0.1% interest rate) and ~£1.3 million comes from the £100 million of non government lending (£100 million at ~15% interest rate).

This leaves ~£3.9 million coming from the government backed loans, compared to a total revenue of £9 million in October.

I could have some assumptions wrong but I reckon this isn’t far off.

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Hopefully it be cashless ATM :ok_hand:

What would you use an ATM for if it didn’t contain cash? :thinking:

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Cheques? :thinking:

Brilliant idea! You write a cheque, post it into the machine, and cash comes out! Why hasn’t anyone thought of it before?

Or you tell the machine how much you want, it writes you a cheque, and you walk to a bank to cash it!

If I was a friend of Sunak, this would be policy by now.

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Been facetious :rofl:

You jest, but there are check cashing machines and ATMs that exist in America that will accept checks and cash comes out…

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:two: Monzo will stop issuing physical cards by default - to both save money and help the environment.

Can’t see that happening. Even though contactless is pretty widespread now and I barely use my physical Monzo card over Apple Pay, you need a card if you want to take cash from an ATM which you might need for various situations or if you want to make larger purchases. Also if phone runs out of battery it’s good as a backup.

All I’m saying is that when you open an account it’ll set you up immediately with Google or Apple Pay. You can still order a card if you want one. Just a wee bit more friction for those that (as you say) rightly need a card for ATMs etc.

Time to initiate a social engineering attack to infiltrate his social circles and make it happen!

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If it’s cashless ATMs, this is how they’d work!

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How DARE you! I resemble that remark

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I wonder if or when the tech might exist for a machine to scan a cheque, ping a message to the sender’s bank to check if there is an available balance, receive authorisation back and release the funds from the machine.

So free money then.

Why didn’t Monzo sign up to the scheme?

Good amount of thought in your predictions…

Your predictions are bland, which is a fair judgment. I’d like to see more partners in the marketplace.

  • Integrations with trading platforms, so balances are viewable. I don’t think this is massively difficult so very possible in 2021

I’d hope that there is more movement in the space in terms of mergers / acquisitions, I really don’t want to see more competitors join the race, as an investor but also because new joiners aren’t bringing much of anything.

I wanted to say I’d love to see how Ncino changes the space in terms of the dinosaurs catching up. But I think that Ncino will have more traction in the States as from what I can tell (not properly researched) the U.K. banks already have their capabilities.

I can’t help but think that the vast majority of the population use their banks for cash, salaries, bills, spending, loans, credit cards, and mortgages. If the neobanks want to dominate, these are the things they must get right.

While trading platform integration might be handy, it’s pretty niche in the grand scheme of things.

Even budgeting (using an app) is an uncommon practice, but I can at least see how people might discover this and suddenly realise how useful it is to them.

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Six months in and I’m stuck at the lack of progress: both at Monzo and in the industry. Perhaps I was just overoptimistic?

Anyhow, let’s check in:

I thought that we’d have some of this already, to be honest, so this doesn’t auger well for H2 pace.

I still think we’ll likely see virtual cards connected to pots (:soon: ?).

Connected cards have had an upgrade but I wouldn’t call it nearly native. I suspect easy wins (like adding notes) won’t be landed this year (if ever).

I suspect credit card pots will end up in the “too difficult” category.

A web interface is a nice idea and Monzo were (I think) recruiting web engineers. I’d put this as evens, though.

Nice idea, good for press and would be eco-friendly and save money. I think inertia means that this won’t happen though: I just don’t think that Monzo’s agile enough to deliver on this (and is probably too risk averse).

I stand by this!

The annual report should be released imminently so we’ll find out soon! I suspect it’ll be a story of two halves: big pandemic losses but tempered by paid account take up and economic bounce back. I think Monzo will probably be in a stronger long term position now.

:eyes:

I don’t mean to rewrite the past, but I meant that Monzo would directly connect to the international banking system, there would be IBANs and we wouldn’t need to use TransferWise as an intermediary.

I think it’s 50:50 whether this will happen for business customers. For personal accounts, given the recent reworking of the Wise integration I think it’s unlikely.

TBC. I hoped that the Simple closure might prompt them to do something, but no. Lots of paddling underwater or a lack of agility?

I don’t think that Monzo has yet announced it’s overhauling lending. They seem to be doing some incremental stuff, though.

There is no Monzo credit card. Yet!

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Perhaps. I was a little too. But we are only half way through and a lot can happen in 6 months. Monzo have done some things, mostly positive, but nothing really ground breaking or in-line with the expectations I feel have been set by the various teases on here.

Some things do feel like preparatory work for bigger things to come though, like the controversial* pots tabs.

*because I don’t like them and turned them off when a toggle was added to labs.

Perhaps they’ll make more sense when new stuff it has potentially paved the way for gets added.

Almost! I think it’s in a stronger healthier place now. And the engagement from Monzo lately is brilliant. Any chance @alan could do the same for my dying blue star fern?

I still need this for Monzo to become a one stop banking shop. Without, I’m always going to need to keep other accounts around, and actively use them.

There’s been a few promising teases in the credit department and I’m still excited to see what transpires from that.

This year though? 2021 was supposed to be big and exciting. It hasn’t quite been that yet, but this would certainly make it so.

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