House Price Crash

I have a friend that doesn’t want to buy, they like the safety net and simplicity of renting. In that the landlord takes care of all issues, their payments are fixed and they aren’t at risk of losing loads of money in a house price crash.

There are pros and cons to both

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That’s always been my attitude as well. And I’m not tied to one place

But I’m starting to think about buying, or at least saving money for a deposit in case I do decide to buy at some stage

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I understand your other points but not sure about this one. As a single homeowner (not a property investor), house price crashes don’t really affect me at all. Even if I were to sell this place (not intending on it), it’d be to buy somewhere else and if prices crash nationally the new place
would also be correspondingly cheaper.

I suppose at worse there’s a vague possibility of prices crashing so far I can’t get the money to remortgage, but frankly even if you bought on a 5% deposit and a 5 year fix, that’s really unlikely (and I bought at about 15% so it’s all but impossible at this point).

Generally, I own it and I’m not selling so it’s paper value is a meaningless figure to me.

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No, there isn’t, and as a country we are much more focussed on home ownership than some other places.

My two main issues with “rent for life” are 1) that it makes you more vulnerable post retirement because you’re likely to be dependent housing benefit, and 2) if house prices continue to rocket, the wealth gap between the rich and poor widens. (Neither of these are necessarily insurmountable problems…)

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HSBC analysis gives a good half-dozen reasons why buying a house will not get easier for years

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Ah yes, this has been kicking around for a week or two. Shame that they never actually link the HSBC report. On their points:

  • Removal of furlough having no effect is… an assumption, to say the least.
  • Pent-up savings is a one-time force. They can only push up prices temporarily.
  • The “race for space” is, quite obviously, zero sum. Though the nationals seem utterly oblivious to this quite obvious fact.
  • Borrowing is indeed cheap. To assume it will be cheap for the next decade is… also an assumption.
  • Too much cash chasing too few properties is a version of the persistent myth that there’s a housing shortage, but there actually isn’t.
  • Buy-to-let isn’t coming back; you’re taxed to hell if you own directly, and there are a welter of fees and taxes if you do it through a LTD company. Just take a look at the sop stories on the landlord forums; it’s bad times over there.

The housing market might keep going up. Or interest rates might rise and rinse it out completely. Either way, it’s undeniable that the government has the taps fully open right now and there seems little room to manoeuvre.

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BBC article today about rising rents and there’s a calculator at the bottom for whether it’s better for you to rent or buy.

“The average deposit for UK first-time buyers is £54,770.” WHAT! Who manages to save over £50k?!

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I saved £45k for my first purchase in 2011. I wasn’t a First Time Buyer, though, because I was buying 50/50 with a friend who already owned property.

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Don’t you need a 10% deposit? or sometimes 5% if they’re a new build or that on and off government scheme is available.

Who buys a house that is worth over half a million as their first? :confused:

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Not many; just a priviledged few. My favourite take on this was from this article:

It would be nice if the English language occasionally managed to accommodate this point. So instead of, “we used our savings to buy a house”, how about: “we bought our house with a mortgage, about £3,800 of scarcely-relevant scraps from the saved proceeds of fragile and exhausting labour, and about £66,200 of family money”.

It is a wonderful takedown of the endless stream of articles you read where a couple somehow managed to “save” for a deposit, and then buried somewhere in the text is the revelation that most of the ballast was from a gift / inheritance.

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See the following formulation also: “Through hard work and determination*, this millennial was able to save for a house deposit within 12 months! If they can do that, anyone can!”

*Also, their parents gave them somewhere to live rent-free, paid all their bills, and supplied their groceries. And that’s even before considering if they chipped in for the eventual purchase on top of this.

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Don’t forget cutting out a latte or avocado. That definitely bridges that gap from skint to house-buying.

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5% mortgages are indeed back, and the top 20% is guaranteed by the government, so the banks don’t eat any losses (ok, technically 5%, but that’s nothing). You can also get the equity loan for a new-build, which in London will land you a quarter of a million pounds for free for 5 years, with very minimal interest thereafter. Interest rates are at their lowest point ever, meaning that people can borrow more than ever before. So you can actually “get on the housing ladder” with less than you think; albeit at the risk of losing your shirt.

Everyone in London :cry:

Sorry not to conform to your biased worldview, but I saved hard, forwent foreign holidays for about a decade, took a secondary job and eventually changed my career to a job very few people would want to do, for the pay and pension benefit to me. In the end I bought a run-down property in an area not many people wanted to live in, with the knowledge that within a few years it would be desirable.

I think that the larger point here is that it’s insane that people have to spend a decade in penury, working two jobs, all just to be able to encumber themselves with a monstrous mortgage for half of a crap house.

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Royal family enema technician?

Cremation furnace gold tooth siever?

Katie Price personal assistant?

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You have to remember that actually the averages are pushed up by mainly the London and South coast regions. Get further up north, all these articles and figures mean nothing.

Prices are so much cheaper / affordable.

Edit - also when you’re further away from metropolitan areas up north the prices are generally decent, the closer you get to a big area the more they tend to jump up.

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And people are paid so much less. And there are fewer jobs. It’s all relative.

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Not one bit, wages are decent up here

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Regarding Avocado, this article was quite nice.

And by nice I mean utterly demoralising.

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