phildawson
(Sorry, I will have to escalate this.)
144
I’m not being specific about you coming into threads everytime bitcoins mentioned to call it a bubble. It was just coincidence that I posted something that you then said.
It’s a general attitude that people have when they see something going up they respond with oh must be a bubble and are sceptical. It then goes up more and they keep repeating it’s definitely a bubble, we then see a dip taking it back to levels not seen since last week, and they come out of the woodwork to shout see it’s a bubble, then a few days later the trend continues and back to calling a bubble.
And just to say everyone should realise that any market has its bull and bear markets. So at somepoint either side will be correct.
The key thing in my opinion is that it’s very much here to stay like the stock market, and will continue in an overall uptrend despite pullbacks along the way to cool off
Put it this way it’s like PC users going onto the Apple forums to shout you could build that for cheaper, when no-coiners popup in a Bitcoin General chat thread.
Personally, I view it as investing with a gambling block of ‘don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose’ - a mix of the two. A bit like the Monzo shares, kiss goodbye to that money and at some point in the future, you may get some back. Except with crypto - depending on luck mostly - you can see gains that are above and beyond normal stocks trading.
I put a bullseye in a few weeks ago and even with the dips of the last few days, the same group of crypto is currently at a grouped value of nearly double that figure.
But the purchase choices made are for the long term, not to make some quick money. I don’t see any value in trading either, stick with what you bought originally and don’t chop & change cryptocurrencies - the exchanges win when people start doing that with their fees.
I’m impressed with the performance of ETH, COMP and XLM recently though.
Also NFA.
3 Likes
phildawson
(Sorry, I will have to escalate this.)
155
Both. (If you’re talking non HMRC)
Any form of investing is gambling, it’s all about risk/reward.
Any money that doesn’t have a guaranteed return in my book is a gamble.
My view is that the word ‘bubble’ is very overused. It worth noting that there isn’t some preordained, objective definition of a bubble so there will always be disagreement over this but a ‘speculative bubble’ at its heart represents a price that no reasonable future outcome or projection can support.
Just like we can argue about whether a stock is overvalued, we can argue about Bitcoin is overvalued today but I think its gone beyond a bubble now. It’s representative of a new asset class subject to huge boom and busts but no longer a bubble.
You could argue that it was a bubble in 2013 or maybe even 2017 but now we can start to price in its value as a digital gold - a substitute for a large amount of the value of the physical gold market - as a reasonable future outcome (not a certainty but a reasonable projection). The fact that we saw huge declines post-2013/2017 and then subsequent recoveries also suggest its graduated from the bubble status - there is no historical parallel to a ‘bubble’ like Bitcoin reinflating.
The narrative and consensus around Bitcoin now is that it is a store of value, not a currency. A store of value doesn’t require stable pricing, it just requires permanence (the historical price of physical gold has been hugely volatile at times - that doesn’t negate it as a ‘store of value’). Talking about it as a currency is a complete red herring.
As is talking about Bitcoin as if it has no fundamental value. I’m not persuaded by the ‘money printing is evil and Bitcoin is our saviour against a broken economic system’ narrative but there is value. There is value as a store of value (like or not). There is value as the Grandfather of all crypto currencies, if nothing else (and there are plenty of good arguments there it bring much more value). I believe crypto, as a broad asset class, represents internet-native currency and value. If you think the internet will continue to become increasingly intwined with our daily lives, then the market for internet-native money will grow hugely. Is PayPal really the best solution for transferring value on the internet!? I can’t believe that is true going forward.
Boom and busts are a feature of a new asset class, not a bug, so we’ll see more of these going forward but I think talking of it as a bubble of far too simplistic.
1 Like
phildawson
(Sorry, I will have to escalate this.)
162
Basically someone setup short positions and then released a tweet. Everyone pretty jaded at this point from all the BS games being played
Looks like fraud to me. Binance have already been caught lying multiple times, and their recent statement of reserves which is supposed to reassure is mostly undefined ‘commercial paper’, < 3% actual cash reserves. At the start they were claiming fully backed 1-1 USD which is clearly absurd now.
ok I guess? 
I wouldn’t have done that but baby steps. I would have seriously gone alts instead.
