phildawson
(Sorry, I will have to escalate this.)
848
Yeah I mean it depends on what you’re counting as “tipping point”
If you are talking new car registrations then 2030 is going to be last potential date as manufacturers stop producing new petrol/diesel.
There’s a report on the 11 June from the SMMT which uses car regs to predict the crossover on new registrations going forward. So for pure BEV overtaking ICE:
The earliest scenario is 2025
The average scenario is 2027
The slow adoption is 2029
As for BEV outnumbering ICE cars on the road I’m guessing 2030-2045?
I mean some keep their cars 15+ years, but how many will be buying a new ICE nearer to 2030
Edit:
Should also note that looking at the split of ICE it might as well read petrol. Looking at last month ICE it was 90k of which 15k were diesel and that appears to be shrinking fast.
So pure Electric Vs Diesel new registrations should flip in 2021. I would guess easily in this decade it will flip Electric Vs Diesel cars on the road. As for diesel trucks well
So I reckon a tipping point in five years (2026) where new BEV out sells new ICE, and then a futher decade after with a tipping point with more BEV than ICE on the road (2036)
Based on how fast tech is going 2025 should be an interesting year. Only four and a bit years away
Someone please remember this thread if Monzo still exists…
Great reply with lots of interesting data. All that sounds much more reasonable.
We all of course hope it happens sooner but sometimes it’s easier said than done. I want one now but sadly it’s just not financially viable at the moment. As soon as it is, I’ll help push the numbers up.
I also wonder if when we get to the tipping point whether the government will then do a 180 on EV tax exemptions. Because they’re greedy of course and will moan about having no money since most drivers are not paying to help maintain roads and such.
It should be kept in mind that the SMMT is a trade body representing the motor industry in the U.K.
Presently we have a situation whereby motor manufacturers, particularly JLR, are desperately trying to extend their present dependence on ICE production because in JLRs case they invested heavily in ICEs, particularly diesel, and failed to invest in EVs.
So the brief to the SMMT is to lobby the government for industry assistance in order to transition to BEVs and limit the financial penalties of failing to meet carbon emission targets. Targets which the EU is proposing to increase dramatically.
Don’t forget hybrids don’t stop getting produced until 2035, so that could see people flocking to those for a new car once the pure petrol and diesel cars can’t be produced anymore.
phildawson
(Sorry, I will have to escalate this.)
852
I don’t know I see the opposite happening and hybrids becoming completely irrelevant and a similar drop off in new registrations to ICE. In 2030+ to me it doesn’t make much sense at that point to half ass it. They were always just a quick intermediary step. I kinda agree with this scenario that after 2025 we’ll start to see a plateau and then fewer PHEV/HEVs being sold as BEV options become better and cheaper, faster charging, bigger batteries, better infrastructure etc
2030 is simply a date set to end production of ICE vehicles.
I believe that PHEVs will not be offered long before then if only because they are now regarded as being more polluting than was originally claimed.
Just listen to this man painting the future for the VW group.
I’m all for additional alternative fuel vehicles but I do struggle to see how hydrogen addresses many of the concerns raised about EVs in this thread.
Granted it can refuel quicker than an EV if you live close enough to one of the 11 hydrogen refueling station in the UK but surely the following concerns around EVs still apply to hydrogen?
“the charging infrastructure needs to improve”
“I have no off-street parking, so I can’t charge at home” (there are potential solutions, but if you thought the cost of installing a wall charger unit was prohibitive…)
“the mining of materials for batteries” (many hydrogen cars still use batteries and the fuel cells require rare materials like titanium)
“the lifespan of the batteries” (EV batteries are typically rated for hundreds of thousands of miles, similar to estimated lifespan of hydrogen fuel-cells)
“EVs are not affordable” (fuel cells are not cheap either, plus the higher cost for refueling)
I suppose another benefit is that you’ll keep the fuel-transport industry afloat as they’ll need to get the hydrogen all around the country to the refueling stations. And I suppose you’ll keep the fuel industry afloat too as they can sell you the hydrogen.
I just struggle to see the appeal of going this route, particularly when so much progress has already been made towards BEVs and electricity is already ubiquitous.
I do see hydrogen fuel cell vehicles playing a role in transport but not in the private sector.
I guess (for me personally) this is where I fundamentally disagree. If you can charge at home, the need to refuel that quickly is mostly irrelevant as you can start every day with a full tank.
The refuelling time just isn’t the biggest issue for me, not even close. But I suppose that’s probably because I don’t drive long distances very often (but neither do most people in the UK). If I am doing a rare 500 mile drive, I welcome the break to recharge and eat some lunch.
Sounds like hyperbole from that driver to me, but I could be wrong. Either way, hydrogen isn’t any better in this regard. The fact that you can add any miles at all while doing your shopping is a pro over hydrogen.
I have regularly charged at Tesco, Waitrose and Asda for the period that I have been in Store or in the vicinity. I have visited Waitrose in Hitchin, plugged in, shopped in store and then spent time in the town shops.
I have shopped in Tesco, had a coffee in the cafe and then had my haircut all the while the car has been charging free of charge.
Of course I accept that as a retiree I can spend the time others don’t have.
My mileage is no longer great and as a consequence my journeys are largely free of cost.
Motor manufacturers are waking up to the fact that people like me are a target market.
Many are both cash and time rich and increasingly are willing to embrace new technologies.
As can be seen in the image below a stop to charge whilst shopping results in significant range increases.
Yep, totally fair point. I am very fortunate/privileged to be able to charge at home (from solar), to be able to afford an EV and to not be doing long distance drives very often. This is probably skewing my view on the whole thing. There is probably an inherent bias where all/most current EV owners are early adopters and have personal circumstances that are inherently suited to owning an EV.
That said, something still doesn’t sit right with me about hydrogen fuel cell technology. It just feels like an unnecessary, additional, complex step in the process of ‘electricity to miles driven’.
Electricity just feels way more democratic (if that’s the right word) compared to hydrogen. I fear if we go the route of hydrogen we will see a pattern of rising fuel costs, as big corporations will have control over the refuelling process (as they do now).
Hyundai is not only entering its own race team in the Pure ETCR championship, but is also providing a mobile charging infrastructure that uses HTWO’s proprietary fuel cell generator to charge all EVs in the series. The charging system can generate up to 160 kW of electricity, boasting an output equivalent to twice that of the production Hyundai Nexo FCEV SUV. The system can fully charge two ETCR vehicles – each equipped with a 65 kWh battery – simultaneously within an hour.
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phildawson
(Sorry, I will have to escalate this.)
864
@Lewis_P They are still EVs at the end of the day it’s just the fueling that’s different. Charging from an electric point, or filling up with the fuel to make the required electric on the go.
When you are talking things like large delivery trucks that weigh tonnes that are constantly on the go up and down our motorways it makes sense to refilling in a few minutes like they do with diesel atm.
I think most trucks would need 500-1000 kWh batteries.
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phildawson
(Sorry, I will have to escalate this.)
865
Just found an interesting site that gives a rough estimate on battery size needed.
947 kWh based on only going on perfectly flat roads. Either way it’s a lot of batteries and weight, and cost.
