I think they’ll fight this tooth and nail. Apple built their entire image on privacy and all the controls they give to users. If you allow people to sideload apps, you’re potentially compromising that safety and privacy because people will be allowed to install dodgy apps from questionable sources because “hey this clone of Candy Crush from totally-legit-games-not-a-scam-we-promise.ru has infinite gems!” (or whatever stupid in game currency they use)
I fully support Apple in their stance on this, and if it ever changed I’d have to think about where I go from there. At the same time, allowing reputable companies to publish game streaming apps (streaming of games that aren’t on the AppStore anyways) is a no brainer though.
I don’t for a second think Tencent are standing up for anyone but their own interests. They don’t care about any of the smaller devs and because of the way they do it (shoot yourself in the foot then point at Apple and Google shouting they made you do it) it might not go anywhere. It’s just another disgusting corporate move by a money- and data-hungry Chinese firm.
I think Apple and Google have no reason to charge 30% for IAPs, but they should stick to their guns on this.
Basically I guess I’m saying I’m happy with things as they are as long as Apple get the stick up their ass about game streaming and lower the (IAP) share they take for virtually nothing