I guess if you prefer the ostrich approach then that’s your prerogative. The 1% interest to 10% inflation is, unfortunately, a fact no matter where one’s head is. The government thanks you deeply for your kind ongoing repressional contributions.
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Maybe it was when he thought house prices would half 
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Half? Perhaps hyperbolically… Patience, my friend, flat prices in London are already down 11%. And interest rate rises causing problems for the housing market is playing out precisely as I predicted 
.
One specific TYPE of housing has fallen in price in a few specific areas. Note these areas are ones which have recently seen a substantial increase in supply of apartments, specifically. Hence, the price fall. As supply has temporarily outstripped demand.
Elsewhere, whilst supply is so anaemic and not even close to demand, house prices will sadly continue to rise.
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Falls always have to start somewhere, and in the UK historically where London has lead the rest of the country had followed. London flats are just the tip of the iceberg.
You’re just predicting what you want because it suits you.
DYOR etc.
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You can’t just make an outlandish prediction like that without backing it up. It is a waste of everyone’s time.
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Do you think that Rightmove, a company that gets the overwhelming majority of its revenue from estate agents, will ever print “house prices are going to fall”? 
Here’s one back at ya:
House prices are at their highest ever multiple of wages. Interest rates are rising, reducing the capital buyers have access to. We are plunging headlong into a swinging recession. There’s war in Europe. There is a cost of living crisis unlike anything seen for more than a generation. It’s not outlandish; if anything, it’s conservative.
God knows, there’s been multiple moments, too many to recollect as to when it happened. Either way it’s brilliant, can’t see anything that’s been written as I’m not nosey enough to click the button to reveal the messages.
Pure bliss 
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And yet… demand for housing is still much greater than supply.
Mortgages are stress tested to much higher interest rates than we could reasonably expect in the foreseeable future.
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There’s a broad oversupply of housing. It’s a persistent myth that we didn’t build enough.
Did you note that they removed the stress test recently? Additionally, those tests weren’t done in the environment of the kind of recession we are heading into, with a war in Ukraine causing skyrocketing fuel and food costs, with more to come. But that doesn’t really even matter! The marginal buyer sets the price, the marginal buyer is usually leveraged and thus their access to capital is governed by… interest rates. Which are rising. The nexus of these things makes the outlook look very bad.
The thing that I have consistently found though is that anyone with exposure to the housing market immediately decides that it always goes up. That prevailing economic conditions will have no effect on it. And that it’s a one-way bet. But I guess they didn’t read their history books.
Time will tell. But to take a position of “the housing market will be unaffected by the deluge of horrendous economic catastrophes heading our way” is, I think, being wilfully ignorant.
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When I saw the removal of the stress test, I thought of banks preparing for higher interest rates.
I’m busy preparing for an exam, so I don’t have time to take this apart, but deary me. This is like reading about alternate reality. Here’s a good place to start on the fact that a massive under supply of housing is driving rising prices and rents.
They removed a stress test, a minor one at that (which has only been in force for 8 years anyway). The main way mortgages are regulated is through the ‘loan to income framework’ and these regulations haven’t been weakened.
So you have found an example of supply outstripping demand and therefore prices fell… and this is somehow a gotcha moment? The only thing I have said is that house price won’t fall whilst demand outstrips supply - which is demonstrably true in pretty much every housing market. I haven’t come across anywhere where does not hold. Just for the record, I don’t own any property. So I have no financial interest in the continuing appreciation of house prices.
Again, something I haven’t said. I said whilst demand outstrips supply house prices will continue to rise. Which they will. Now, the near-term economic conditions may reduce demand if people are unable to afford to buy a house, for obvious reasons, like job losses. if demand falls below supply, then sure, house prices will fall. And I hope they do!
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This has been on the cards for over a year - it’s not a reaction to recent events.
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I posted fact. You posted prediction.
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Unfortunately that alternate reality is… really reality. Feel free to read through the series of articles (bottom first) when you do indeed have time to digest. I think you should also probably, um, check the background of the author before assuming your own knowledge is so vastly superior.
I have to say that I am not encouraged that the first link on that article is to an advertorial piece that has since been removed 
. The thrust of the piece is a simple “it’s supply and demand so increase supply”. This is the core myth; an argument so seductively simple and promulgated so persistently by the media that just about everyone believes it. Instead, that series of articles decisively argues, from first principles and using hard data, that we do not have a supply shortage at all. I can’t recapitulate the whole thing here; you just have to do the reading. However, the Bank of England have themselves admitted in their research that this is the case. You can read about that here and here.
Did you, er, read the link? It’s a comprehensive history of UK housing booms and busts - with all the nuance that happened in each case. Most people have never heard of the Barber Boom or the Lawson Boom, and that’s layered in to how they can misrepresent the historical fluctuations in the housing market to themselves.
Something, at least, that we can agree on. But I think you should go back and revisit your simplistic “supply and demand” story. It’s not so simple, and you’ve now got plenty you can read on the topic to understand why.
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I’m muting this thread now also. I think that’s a first for me.
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Likewise!
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