If you invested at a valuation of 1bn, it will very likely not be 6-7x
It could be be a lot less.
This is what happened to Freetrade when they gave a much lower price per share to many crowdfunders compared to institutional investors.
My rough calculations is that 7bn would be a 15x return for me personally as most of my shares were bought in the earlier rounds… but hey, I’m sure someone else can do the math better than me 
I’ll be happy with a shareprice north of £20, but no idea how realistic this is..
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Over 20£ per share for sure, but not by much
Sky News has tended to be accurate in its reporting re: Monzo in the past so hopefully this is in fact true.
Clearing the decks of crowdunders this side of 2026 would be certainly welcome
A huge amount! Monzo made £15m last year, if you were to value it just based on current profit / dividend potential it would be worth more like £150m as a business or less. Everything above that is an assumption it will one day grow into a much bigger business.
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That seems like a ridiculous overvaluation, at face value. What really makes what Monzo has, tech stack or concept, worth anything like that much.
If it did IPO for anything like that level, feels very much like the next WeWork, i.e. IPOs for that value but ultimately loses billions in value within the hour.
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It doesn’t feel anything like Wework.
Wework was valued at 47bn, they were a landlord pretending to be a tech company, they were loosing a lot of money, Monzo isn’t any of that
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Which is why I put the rest of the post I.e potentially overvalued before IPO. According to companies house Monzos gross revenue growth was forecasted to be £880m.
That’s a light year away from a £6bn float, it’s another ridiculous over valuation.
I know £6bn might seem like a fantastical number, but I do think that’s on the lower end of what is feasible. We all have our own opinions, but looking at comparables is arguably the best way to estimate this.
Wise. Operates in the same sector, has a similar narrative and is also UK based/London listed. Has more international presence and perhaps a bigger market, but Monzo has a much stronger brand. Has traded consistently between £6-10bn in the past 2 years. Revenue is higher than Monzo but I think Monzo are trending about 12-18 months behind where Wise is.
Nu Bank. Neobank from South America, listed in the US. Trading at a $60bn valuation. Much bigger scale and market so is more like comparing Monzo to Revolut (not apples to apples) but is absolutely in the same space. Trades at a 12x multiple to revenue. Let’s say Monzo can only achieve half of that, a 6x multiple, that still puts it in the right ballpark for a £6bn valuation.
Metro Bank. Small, UK only ‘modern bank’ but without the growth expectation or narrative. Dogged with accounting issues, allegations of misconduct, etc. and have been in serious hot water with the regulator. Still valued at 1.5x 2024 revenue, despite the fact they’re weighed down by an unscalable model (a focus on branches). Monzo should easily be able to triple the valuation given they’re actually growing and have a brilliant brand. At a 4.5x revenue multiple, Monzo would be valued around the same price as the previous £4.5bn round. And to be honest, revenue will grow quickly so by the time they list, £6-7bn is entirely realistic.
You don’t have to agree with those comparables and you may well be right, but that is what the market is telling you right now. Fintechs are desirable investment and there is still among road of growth ahead, even if it’s only in the UK.
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As a proxy for revenue we can expect (pretty soon) in the 2025 annual report - TS Anil mentioned in a podcast their revenue per customer figures
- 11 million personal customers * £145 ARPU = £1.6bn
- 500k business banking customers * £550 ARPU = £0.275bn
- Total revenue £1.875bn
Appreciate this is a crude calculation and may overstate revenue as that figure he quoted could have been less towards beginning of the financial year… also customer numbers would be less - But I don’t think £1.5 is an unreasonable guess for revenue this year
4x Revenue (ish) still seems to be lowball…?
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Those would be good numbers and would put a real marker down in terms of growth trajectory.
Agree that 4x multiple would be way too low. I think a 6x multiple is not unrealistic, which would take the valuation to similar levels as Wise (c.£8-10bn - which I guess would be £30 per share or so).
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Let´s wait for the 2025 Annual report that should come out shortly. Looking at the interest rates last year and jump in profit in competitors like revolut I am expecting that profit will be significantly higher this year.
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I’m not sure on profit.. it really depends if they’re focusing on showing the market they can generate a profit or if its being reinvested heavily?
It won’t make any difference at all to what I mentioned.
Unless they somehow surprise us with a £1.5bn profit - which they won’t - their profit will be miniscule compared to the £6bn valuation being talked about. It’s a valuation based on future growth, not based on current profit and that won’t change with a new annual report 
A £10bn valuation wouldn’t be terrible! I would be happy with that and would likely sell a portion of my shares and hold on to the rest. I maxxed out all crowdfunding rounds, so I’m now thinking about what is the best action to take at IPO
At £10bn, they’d be admitted into the FTSE100, automatically being included on any FTSE tracker fund… interesting
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Ditto. I’d be very happy with that valuation, which is a stretch goal I reckon! I also maxed out the crowdfunding opportunity and would happy to sell 50% of my shares at that level.
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12 million customers now. Not sure if it’s been posted elsewhere
I would like to know more in the annual report about overseas expansion plans. Monzo are already an established UK bank but I’d be disappointed if it didn’t launch in some other similar European or Asian markets.
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They do, but they’ve had Monzo US and the idea of expanding into Europe for several years now, with very little actual results. So it’s a question of, what’s the concrete plan / is there a concrete plan or is being almost entirely UK only the plan for the foreseeable.
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I think the EU expansion is going full steam ahead - If you check job ads on Monzo’s website there’s loads of roles in Dublin now all heavily focused on getting a banking license.. and also interestingly (ive not read about this anywhere) theyre recruiting for software engineers in spain
Monzo USA - I’ve heard almost nothing, so would be good to get an update. It’s a complicated market, even though you’d think it would be similar to the UK. Mostly down to federal/state level approvals etc. No foreign firm has gotten a banking license yet over there from a neobank perspective… I always thought acquiring a smallish bank with a federal banking license would be a smart move
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and 600k business customers… Im expecting business banking to be a big revenue driver going forward.
I work for an incumbent bank (sadly) and we just keep seeing the likes of monzo, starling, wise, allica bank moving further and further up the value chain. Big money to be made and a market the incumbents are doing an absolutely awful job of serving
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