Monzo Valuation

This is pretty unlikely. Most IPOs restrict sales from early investors in lock in periods, which is quite the opposite. Most IPOs raise money, they dont sell shares.

Not sure you know what you’re talking about.

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Yeah entirely agree

Time will tell.

Ever heard of a direct listing? Not all IPOs are the same.

Direct listings are 1) when start ups want to avoid scrutiny and dilution and have a lot of internal demand to sell, and b) being clamped down on

Direct listings aren’t being clamped down on - not sure where you have got this from. In fact, a number of the big investment banks are actually looking to formalise direct listing as an alternate route.

  1. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/sec-probes-listings-of-slack-other-unicorns-on-nyse-over-several-years-11576872476

And 2) https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1YA2BM

Not sure debating a clear process with the SEC is the same as a “clamp down”.

Anyway, we’re well off topic now! Sounds like we have a few years to speculate in any event!

If you do a quick news search for Revolut you’ll see that in the last year their press machine has been hyping ‘no less than $20bn’ valuation before IPO float, along with stories about aiming for an imminent $1.5bn raise at a $10bn valuation, then more recently this same ‘imminent’ raise was speculated at a $7-8bn valuation instead of 10.

The latest rumours publicised in the last couple of days are that their raise is now of unknown amount and at a $5bn valuation.

Whether that’s a massive climbdown or just their style of negotiation played out in public, I don’t know, but it certainly felt to me that they had been hoping for over a year for a loose canon like Softbank to pile in at their ‘finger in the air’ valuation of $10bn, and since those investors are now nursing their wounds and their peers are less exuberant, Revolut have ended up at what feels like a very poor deal based on the hype they’ve been spreading for over a year.

If Revolut got their desired £7.5bn valuation they were expecting to achieve last year, you could look at Monzo now and say it is a solid £4-5bn company, but with Revolut at £3.8bn where does that put Monzo’s rumoured raise?

Is Monzo also going to get a small uptick in valuation (small in relation to the 300% annual growth over last few years), or in comparing to Revolut are we just looking at a company who had set their sights too high, only delivered millions of non-active users and played too much hardball with investors? Can Monzo’s appeal to US investors send them above Revolut’s valuation?

Tldr: what do you think Monzo is worth in Jan 2020?

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Great question. I reckon we’re north of Revolut.

Uk banking license is surely more valuable than Slovenia.

Massive increase in daily active users (8m customers means nothing - see Tom’s tweet about 57% daily actives on Monzo bs low 10’s for Revolut).

Dominating the Uk market, as opposed to Revolut’s scatter gun approach.

Reckon we should be level pegging or maybe even a smidge higher than Revolut when we raise that extra £50-100m in a month or two.

Just my two cents.

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I’m a very contented investor in Monzo but I look over at what’s happening at Revolut and wonder if they could be “the one”. I don’t understand why Monzo aren’t going hell for leather in expanding into more territories or even turning up the amount of advertising in the UK. Slowly slowly catchy monkey is all very well but the period where Monzo was well ahead of the competition is passing very quickly. The other banks will soon have apps that look enough like Monzo that users won’t bother moving across.

I reckon they should be raising at $4bn currently but think if they were being more aggressive the number would be much higher. Time to go and grab a larger share of the market IMHO.

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Not sure that’s the right approach. Their last big advertising campaign saw their numbers rocket so high that they then struggled with demand. They’re still recovering from that today.

Therefore if Monzo went “hell for leather” it would be suicidal for them. They’re still building their teams, training support staff and so on. Maybe once they’re back on top of everything but not right now :slight_smile:

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It does seem though that they’re starting to add more accounts per day again. It was on a downward trend since September and reached around 5k day in late December, but has now jumped back up to 7-7.5k (based on these numbers https://bankstats.joecarter.xyz/d/000000001/monzo-current-acc?orgId=1&refresh=5m&from=now-1y&to=now).

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Revolut expected to close funding round this month at a valuation of around $5billion (£3.8 billion)

Monzo probably around £3 billion I reckon once/if it closes its latest funding round

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This is still the case, it increased its active user share in the UK from 35% of the challenger bank market to 50%…

I meant well ahead in terms of functionality rather than numbers. I wasn’t clear. Lots of “me too” apps now incorporating freezing of cards etc. The gap between Monzo functionality and other bank’s functionality is decreasing. Hopefully some cheeky new functionality just around the corner.

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